Retired at 70: the INPS simulator predicts it for today’s thirty-year-olds, while Holland asks Italy to save on social security. How will the Calderone reform intervene?

While the table between the government, associations and unions has started to arrive at a shared pension reform, the new INPS simulator returns merciless data for young people and women. According to the current rules, in fact, those who are thirty today will retire at 70, while those who have just started working at 25 will have to wait almost 46 years before leaving work: the age is fixed for them at 70 years and six months.

These forecasts bring the question of the guarantee pension for young people back to the fore as a matter of urgency. However, it is difficult for the government, in a situation in which the public accounts see little cash in hand, to envisage an overall reform of the Fornero law that comes close to the famous Quota 41 requested by the League and the unions, while simultaneously protecting the most fragile categories ( heavy workers, young people and women).

In all of this, the warning from Holland came from Europe during the Davos forum, with Prime Minister Mark Rutte asking France and Italy to reduce their public debt by reducing pension spending. An incandescent “shot”, that of Rutte, given that protests are mounting in Paris for the reform of Emmanuel Macron on pensions (which raises the minimum age threshold to 64 by 2030) and in Italy civil society and workers’ representatives they have been pressing for the end of the Fornero law for years.

When Will Young People Retire?

The new version of the INPS simulator «Pensami – Pensione a measure», which will soon also become an app for smartphones, allows citizens to calculate their pension prospects, without any registration. To make the calculation you need to enter personal data and your own contribution. Obviously the calculation starts from the current rules, therefore from the Fornero law, Quota 103 being a measure of only 2023 (again this year early retirement also applies to some women with the Women’s Option and for hard workers with the Social Bee).

Processing the data, it appears that for those who are 25 today and have started working for a year, the early retirement will reach 70 years and six months, with at least 20 years of contributions, or 70 years and six months if you are at least 46 years old and 4 months of contributions. If instead the years of contributions are less than 20, but more than 5, perhaps due to discontinuous careers, it will be possible to retire only at 74 years and 10 months.

Alarming numbers, therefore, which improve very little for workers born in 1990, therefore today just over 30 years old. They will be able to retire at 70 if they have accumulated 20 years of contributions and access early retirement before that age only with 45 years of contributions (at which point they could retire at any time).

Retirement For Young People, Poor Checks Risk

Young people, therefore, are destined to retire very late in life, with the prospect of leaving early only with a very high number of years of contributions. The problem, however, is also another: pension benefits, given the low average salaries and discontinuous careers, risk being very low, creating a significant social problem. A form of guarantee coverage therefore appears more urgent than ever for the unions.

Future Retirement, The Situation of Women

It’s not much better for women. For those who are just over 50 and started working at 25, early retirement reaches 65 years and 4 months, with at least 20 years of contributions, but only if the allowance is 2.8 times the minimum. If it is within 1.5 and 2.8 times the minimum, we will have to wait 68 years and 8 months (therefore 2041). That same year the early retirement would arrive with 43 years and six months of contributions, while for the old-age pension it would be necessary to wait for 73 years.

For women who have just turned 60, on the other hand, if they started working at 25, the early and old-age pension will coincide in 2030 with 42 years and three months of contributions or at 67 years and 5 months of age.

Meloni Government in Difficulty, Skip The Reform of The Fornero Law?

How will Labor Minister Marina Calderone propose a sustainable reform of the Fornero law? According to the president of INPS, Pasquale Tridico, in 2029 the ratio between workers and pensioners will go from the current 1.4 to 1.3. And it will be much worse in the future, for example in 2050, when this ratio will even be one to one.

Amidst all of this, life expectancy will likely continue to rise, leading to a system that is more closely tied to contributions. To safeguard the state accounts, therefore, already today, barring an important injection of liquidity into INPS coffers or a significant increase in employment, it would be necessary to save on pensions. So make them even less flexible.

This probably won’t happen with the current government, which however finds itself in the uncomfortable situation of having promised to cancel the Fornero law, having very little money available to implement the reform.

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