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An influential model cited often by the White House now predicts that 147,000 people in the nation will die from the virus by August, the researcher behind the model Dr. Chris Murray told CNN's Don Lemon Tuesday. It's an increase of 10,000 deaths from two days earlier and double what was projected two weeks ago. "We originally had thought that people would go the distance, keep social distance in place right until the end of May," Murray said. "But what's happened is states have relaxed early."Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said states can begin to reopen safely if they meet guidelines on declining cases and have a strong testing and contact tracing infrastructure in place."Most states don't meet that. A few do. They can probably open up safely. But most states don't. Until we have those in place, we should not be opening up unless we're willing to take a risk of having large outbreaks," he said."Opening up prematurely just sets us up for big outbreaks, which will force us to shut down again."Nationally, cases and deaths have been slowly trending downward over the past few weeks, but that decline is not spread evenly among states. The below map, which looks at the average new cases in the past week compared to the previous week, shows that nine states have seen increases, 22 have seen decreases and 19 have remained about steady.This map, reflecting data as of May 13, 2020, shows the percentage change in the average number of new cases each day over the week ending yesterday compared to the same number for the previous week.The public is following their government's lead in venturing out more, Murray said. He sees more people gathering in groups, increasing the mingling that brings new cases, Murray said.In Santa Clara County, California, authorities are receiving 300 to 400 violations of the state's stay at home order per day, the county's District Attorney Angela Alvarado told CNN. And ICU beds are still 71% or more occupied in six states and the District of Columbia, according to data fromthe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).And as Murray's team predicts a worsening situation, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday that the number of coronavirus deaths already in the US is likely higher than recorded. Challenges to the healthcare system might have resulted in people dying of the virus before getting to a hospital, he said before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

States turn to contact tracing

First it was ventilators, and then testing. Now, states are turning their focus toward contact tracing as weapons in the battle against coronavirus. New Orleans is taking the unusual step of requiring restaurants with open dining rooms to take reservations with a name and a phone number and keep them for at least 21 days so they can track down people if a case arises.Trump says the US leads the world in testing. But it's far behind in testing per capita, studies show"Contract tracing comes with the responsibility of all of us," Mayor LaToya Cantrell said at a news conference. "General public, know where you're going, take … notes (to) remind yourself of where you've been," she said.She said she doesn't know how many will be in Orleans Parish yet, but the state is hiring contact tracers — which several governors said Tuesday they are doing as well.The state of New Jersey is planning to develop a community contact tracing core that could employ 1,000 to 5,000 people, state Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said in a news conference. The job could pay up to $25 dollars an hour, Gov. Phil Murphy said. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced an online tool for contact tracing officials are calling the "Healthy Georgia Collaborative." The tool will help in allowing "Georgians to identify contacts and monitor symptoms."Kemp said there are "nearly 250 staff in the field today," and that the Department of Public Health "plans to have 1,000 staff deployed in the weeks ahead."In Washington state, hundreds of members of the National Guard will be used as part of an interim contact tracing group until more workers and volunteers are trained. They will not have law enforcement power but "simply will be talking to people and helping prevent others from getting sick," Gov. Jay Inslee said.Businesses in the flower district in Skid Row reopen in time for Mothers Day in Los Angeles, California.

California and its schools prepare for the long haul

While restrictions will continue to be loosened and lifted, Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Tuesday that Los Angeles County should expect to remain under some form of a stay at home order for at least another three months.California's main universities not likely to return to campus this fallLos Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti urged residents not to "freak out" at the thought of months of more precautions and said that the city will be following the data available.But schools across the state are making decisions for them.The California State University system has announced plans to cancel nearly all in-person classes for the fall semester in favor of virtual learning, and the University of California System says it likely won't fully reopen in the fall either. "It's not an easy decision," Dr. William Schaffner, Vanderbilt professor of infectious diseases told CNN&#0Read More – Source

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