India is at the crossroads on the 5G question, spoilt for choice at one level, and, yet, not fully equipped — both technologically and commercially — to shape the global conversation. Then again, why worry now? After all, the size and reach of the Indian market will eventually even out all concerns.
This approach underestimates both the 5G opportunity and the accompanying challenge. To clear some basic misconceptions first, 5G is not just another spectrum upgrade, like 2G to 4G. In fact, the general consensus is that the impact on the mobile phone use experience is not even its principal fallout. If 4G allows connectivity to 10,000 people per square kilometre, then 5G could make it three million. But there is no such realistic need.
The applications for 5G will be on systems and machines that run facilities — they will allow for the creation of intelligent hardware that will affect transport, healthcare, robotics, defence items, electricity grids and other basic infrastructure. Its 5G technology that will inform smart city initiatives, connectivity and impart modern facilities like remote medical surgery to rural areas. Essentially, 5G will be central to new models of governance.
Theres no doubt India will need to harness the full potential of 5G, simply because thats the next technological revolution. China realised it in 2009-10. The US is opening its eyes now, only to realise that China has taken the lead through Huawei, which explains the restrictions imposed on US companies and debate over security risks.
The US-China contest, regardless of the nature of exchange last week at Osaka, is headed for a fierce showdown. Washington reads the situation as one similar to where the US found itself in the space race in the late 1950s. The former Soviet Union had taken the lead, sending satellites into space, following it up by sending the first man into space. The US sought to catch up by the early 1960s, but the Soviet Union had clocked more firsts than the US.
At that point, in 1961, President John F Kennedy made the famous claim that the US will land a man on moon and bring him back safely before this decade is out. This was achieved in 1969, thereby ending the space race, as the Soviets struggled to land a probe on the moon.
Sound Decision
India did realise the importance of developing independent nuclear and space programmes, which it achieved through great hardship. As a technological superpower, the US set up rules and mechanisms to control access to dual-use items that were necessary evolution of a programme. The Soviet Union collaborated with the US, brought in China as India stood isolated. It was not until the US-India civil nuclear deal of the last decade did India step out of technological isolation.
For all this while, all indigenous efforts on developing high-end technology, be it for civilian or defence purposes, were constrained by lack of access. Its with this backdrop that New Delhi needs to approach the 5G debate. Todays India finds itself in a far better geopolitical situation. Both US and China have independently offered to collaborate with India on developing 5G technology. So, the question of watching the US-China play first evolve simply doesnt arise. This is the time to forge partnerships in developing the technology of the future, becoming a political stakeholder who can influence the rules to govern the new digital order.
But can it trust China on 5G? Because this would mean allowing Chinese technology to form the bedrock of your new cities, transport and electricity networks among several other key applications.
The sanctity of no backdoor agreements is questionable. The Chinese Cyber Security Law of 2016 and the National Intelligence law of 2017 have clauses that allow for the Chinese government to ensure compliance by the Chinese companies dealing with data. Also, commu
