This is the earliest in a season that the group has made a prediction this high. The only other time CSU researchers predicted 20 or more storms was in their August update of the record-breaking 2005 season.Nearly all seasonal forecasts for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season have been well above normal. Current and long-term conditions across the Atlantic continue to favor a 2020 season that is well above average. When combined with the new record set for the earliest fifth named storm, the high prediction doesn't seem so bold. The previous record for the earliest E-named storm was 2005. While this season is on a record-breaking pace and comparisons can easily be made to the 2005 season, much more goes into a season than the number of storms.A quick comparison of the first five named storms for this year so far shows that 2005 had three hurricanes including a category 4 and 5. And each of the first five storms in the 2005 season made landfall in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the first five storms of the 2020 season have all been short-lived tropical storms and only two have made landfall.
Ingredients are ripe for an active season
The team at Colorado State continues to point to many key factors that favor above-average activity across the Atlantic.For starters, sea surface temperatures across much of the hurricane-breeding grounds in the Atlantic are well-above average and have been for several months. Storms feed off warm ocean waters and can grow stronger under those conditions. Warm ocean temperatures are expected to remain in place moving into the peak months of hurricane season — August to October.
"Another reason for active CSU hurricane season forecast is odds of El Niño this summer/fall are extremely low," according to Colorado State researcher Phil Klotzbach. When El Niño is present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear — changes in wind speed and direction with height that prevent hurricanes from building.In addition to these favorable seasonal conditions, the researchers also expect strong tropical waves to move off Africa's coast. These tropical waves will be able to exploit the warm water, which is why the group is also expecting nine hurricanes – four of which will be major hurricanes (category 3-5).
A storm could form off the East coast
Just as records were set for the earliest 5th named storm, Tropical Storm Edouard has harmlessly come and gone from the US. All eyes now fall now on the low pressure that is over the Southeastern US.
This low pressure system is already bringing widespread rain from the Gulf Coast to thRead More – Source
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